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According to forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”), a division of the National Weather Service, the 2020 hurricane season has a 60% chance of being an “above-normal season.” (See https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020.)
This forecast is based on several factors. According to the NOAA, there are “warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea,” including record high temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. That “coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.” Hurricanes are formed when “a weather disturbance, such as a thunderstorm, that pulls in warm surface air from all directions” combines with “water at the ocean’s surface that is at least 80° Fahrenheit.” (https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/hurricanes.html.) Warm sea water gives hurricanes their strength. Therefore, the warmer the seawater, the more fuel they get, and the stronger these storms can become. Additionally, hurricanes lose strength if high-altitude winds shear apart the top of the storm. Hence, reduced vertical wind shear and weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds will also enable stronger storms to form. (https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/hurricanes.html.) Regarding the fourth of these conditions, a stronger west African monsoon season “allows wind patterns coming off Africa to more easily spin up storms.” (https://www.noaa.gov/stories/whirlwind-of-atlantic-hurricane-season-what-gives.) Additionally, as the NOAA explains, “El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity.” (https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020.) The NOAA notes that when “similar conditions” have been present in the past, they have produced more active seasons than when these conditions are not present. In fact, this is the first time since records of hurricanes have been kept where there were three named storms before the official start of hurricane season on June 1st.
There is, though, another factor that will have an impact during this season’s hurricanes and storms – Coronavirus and COVID-19 – for several reasons.
First, during these initial months of response to Coronavirus and COVID-19, staples like toilet paper, water, disinfectants, and first-aid items often have been out of stock at stores and online. With storms heading their way, certain population centers will have to respond to the inevitable rush for food, bottled water, and other crucial supplies.
Second, many people living along the Southeastern Seaboard and the Gulf Coast rely on various businesses that provide hurricane preparation and storage services, such as window boarding, sandbagging, and securing of personal property. With many businesses struggling to remain open or maintain their workforce due to the pandemic, such services may be more difficult to find.
Third, if people have to head to evacuation centers, which are enclosed spaces crowded with people, the virus and COVID-19 may be more likely to spread.
Finally, as cities and states respond, they will need to put more time, effort, and resources into planning and setting up these centers to ensure social distancing can be practiced. One solution is more centers with more volunteers. Additional personal protective equipment (“PPE”) will be needed such as extra masks, gloves, hand sanitizer, and washing stations.
Some of the resources available to respond to these risks are provided in the following links:
If you have any questions or would like more information, please contact Anastasia Osbrink at email@example.com.
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